Real Estate
Prognosticators See Commercial Real Estate Recovery Continuing to Accelerate in
2014
Commercial real estate firms are moving into the New Year with a renewed
sense of optimism - a positive outlook not seen for the past seven or eight
years.
While many in the industry predicted a recovery in 2013, they did so with a
sense of nagging worry over slower than expected job growth and concerns that
the political brinkmanship in Washington could threaten the nation's credit
rating and pitch the economy into stagnation or, even worse, recession.
Much of those concerns have ebbed as the two parties came to terms in December
over next year’s budget. In addition, the Federal Reserve has established a
clear path for rolling back the so-called quantitative easing steps taken in
years past to bolster the economy. By spelling out its path for reducing debt
purchases, the Fed has taken out much of the guesswork for when those financial
supports will end.
Given the overhanging sense of dread seems to have disappeared from most
forecasts, experts are predicting a better year in 2014.
CoStar News has encapsulated the following 14 outlooks for 2014 from forecasts
offered by respected industry participants and observers. We’ve sorted them
alphabetically by the firm making the forecast:
Cassidy Turley: Impact
from Rising Rates
If the big economic story of 2013 was policy vs. housing,
this year doesn’t promise much in the way of variety. Policy vs. Housing, Part
II will see the same threats to economic growth as we continue to struggle with
dysfunction in Washington and, most likely, more political brinksmanship that
may undermine confidence in the economy. But, while the challenges will be the
same, the underlying fundamentals will be slightly stronger. Perhaps the
biggest difference is that by the middle of 2014, economic growth should be
strong enough for inflation to start to be a possibility once again. This is
actually a good thing. The timetable could vary, but we anticipate the Fed
raising interest rates by the end of the second quarter-likely in May or June.
So long as interest rates don’t move too far too fast, the impact on the
overall economy will be minimal. But there will be one. This could slow the
housing recovery and it will certainly have an impact on commercial real estate
pricing as the price of borrowing becomes more expensive. But that is assuming
the underlying economic fundamentals have heated up to the point of warranting
such a move-which is ultimately a good thing. A stronger economy may bring
higher interest rates, but it will also bring higher earnings, lower
unemployment, greater consumer spending and-for landlords-better rental rate
growth and NOI. In the meantime, look for the first big political squabble
(over the debt ceiling once again) to start up again in late January.
CBRE: Office Market
Recovery Poised To Accelerate
The office market recovery is poised to accelerate in
2014, as an improving economy should result in increased office-using
employment according to CBRE, the world’s largest commercial real estate
services and investment firm. The growth in office-using occupations,
particularly in high-tech industries, is expected to increase demand for office
space. The U.S. office market vacancy rate will continue to decline next year,
falling by 80 basis points (bps) to 14.3% by the end of 2014, Steady
improvement in the office market is expected to continue in 2015, with the
vacancy rate forecasted to dip another 80 bps to 13.5%. CBRE forecasts that
office rents will increase by 3%, on average, in 2014, and rise another 4.4% in
2015, as vacancy levels fall steadily toward the “equilibrium” level over the
next two years.
Cornell Univ. and Hodes
Weill: Big Money Will Continue To Rule
Institutions are significantly under-invested in real
estate and are poised to allocate significant capital to new real estate
investments. The weight of this capital can be expected to have broad
implications for the industry, including transaction volumes, fund raising,
lending activity and property valuations. The supply of capital may sustain
current valuation and financing metrics (including capitalization rates and the
cost of debt capital), according to Cornell University’s Baker Program in Real
Estate and Hodes Weill & Associates, which co-sponsor the Institutional
Real Estate Capital Allocations Monitor.
Deloitte: Steady Growth
but Not Enough To Spur Much New Development
CRE fundamentals continue to improve across all property
types, including vacancy, rent, and absorption levels, according to Deloitte's
real estate forecast. However, demand is yet to increase enough to drive
development activity, except for multifamily and hotel construction, which
continues to be robust. These same sectors, which were the first to grow and
recover after the recession, may see some tapering off in fundamentals as new
supply comes to the market. Overall, it appears that fundamentals will continue
to improve at a moderate pace, in line with the macroeconomic situation.
DTZ: Business Tenants
Keep Bargaining Clout
The U.S. economy will continue to expand at a moderate
rate, which will lead to more job growth and a related increase in demand for
occupational space, reports global property services firm DTZ. However, with
the expected moderate job growth, vacancy will only trend down slowly.
Occupiers will remain in good bargaining positions over the next two years and
occupancy costs will increase in line with inflation. They will continue to
receive concessions as landlords compete to increase their properties' net operating
income. Occupiers will gravitate to the most affordable markets and continue to
reduce their costs through more efficient internal space build-outs.
EY: Private Equity Funds
Getting Hands Dirty
Having emerged from the global recession and its aftermath,
the real estate private equity sector is finally positioned for growth in 2014,
according to a global market trends outlook in real estate private equity
published by EY (Ernst & Young). Strategies being deployed by different PE
firms and even funds to take advantage of this growth opportunity differ, as
fund managers seek to differentiate themselves in a hotly competitive
fundraising environment. But EY sees fewer opportunities in the future for fund
managers to capitalize purely from the financial structuring side of their
investments. The funds that come out ahead of the competition in this next
phase of growth will have one thing in common: an 'old school' asset management
approach that realizes maximum investment value by working closely with service
providers to fill buildings and manage real estate.
Freddie Mac: The
Emerging Purchase Market
Led by a resurgent housing sector, 2014 should shape up
to be better than 2013 with a quickening recovery pace leading to more job
creation. Freddie Mac expects single-family home sales and housing starts to be
at their highest levels since 2007, and expect multifamily transactions and
construction to post gains as well. The big shift ahead will occur as the
single-family mortgage market begins transitioning from a rate-and-term
refinance-dominated market, to a first purchase-dominated market. The emerging home-buyer
purchase market should gather momentum in the coming year.
Grant Thornton: Huge
Boost Ahead for Industrial Markets
U.S. companies will bring production, customer service
and IT infrastructure back home, reports tax-advisory firm Grant Thornton. The
reshoring trend is real and about to dramatically reshape the U.S. economy.
More than one-third of U.S. businesses will move goods and services work back
to the U.S in the next 12 months, which means that as much as 5% overall U.S.
procurement may return home. The Grant Thornton LLP "Realities of
Reshoring" survey found that even IT services, one of the first business
functions to move offshore, are likely to return within a year. The trend could
provide an enormous boost to domestic manufacturers, retailers,
wholesalers/distributors and service providers.
Jones Lang LaSalle: Pent
Up Retail Demand Will Drive Investment
Total retail investment is expected to increase upwards of 20% in 2014,
according to Jones Lang LaSalle, as pent up demand that was not satisfied in
2013 fuels investments and investors look to balance their portfolios. The
retail market will continue to turn around despite store closings and
consolidation. Vacancy rates are projected to inch downward driven by power
center popularity, while rents are expected to increase albeit slightly for the
fourth consecutive quarter. JLL also expects the number of retail property
portfolios coming to market, which combine a broad spectrum of B and C retail
assets, will increase as REITs look to sell assets and recycle capital in the
year ahead.
Kroll Bond Ratings:
Multifamily Resurgence in Conduit CMBS
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has begun to
implement strategies to reduce the multifamily footprints of the two GSEs it
oversees. As a result, Kroll Bond Rating Agency expects we will see a gradual
decline in Fannie and Freddie’s securitized market share, which could revert to
levels not seen since before the run-up to the CMBS market peak. At the peak of
market in 2007, the conduit market’s share of the $36 billion securitized
multifamily loan market was just over 78%. As the financial markets spiraled,
that trend reversed and the GSEs became the primary source of loan production,
dominating securitized new issues with more than a 95% market share.
Nomura: Muted CMBS Loan
Maturity Risk
Based on the performance of loans maturing in 2012 and
2013, the investment bank Nomura estimates that 84% of loans maturing in 2014
will pay in full, a decline of just 3% from 2013 levels. Similar to 2013,
Nomura expects the balance of loans rolling to delinquency to decline over the
coming year, influenced by muted maturity risk and fewer term defaults
resulting from improving CRE fundamentals. Most of the loans maturing in 2014
have 10-year terms and were underwritten prior to the sharp rise in property
values that began in 2005. However, 15% of maturing loans have 7-year terms and
were underwritten at the market peak. This set of loans has an increased risk
of default at maturity.
PKF: U.S. Hotel Investors
Poised To Do Well in 2014/2015
After a slight deceleration in growth during the last half of 2013, PKF
Hospitality Research, LLC (PKF-HR) is forecasting very strong gains in revenues
and profits for the U.S. lodging industry in 2014 and 2015. PKF projects
national revenue per available room (RevPAR) to increase 6.6% in 2014, followed
by another 7.5% boost in 2015. Concurrently, hotel profits should enjoy growth
of 12.8% and 14.5% respectively over the next two years.
PwC US and ULI: Investor
Activity Continues To Expand Beyond Core Markets
The U.S. real estate recovery is set to continue into
2014, with investors increasingly looking beyond some of the traditionally
popular markets to secondary markets in search of higher yields, according to
the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014, co-published by PwC US
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). The predicted growth in secondary markets
will be driven by investors searching for returns as opportunities in core
markets become harder to find and the most sought-after properties become more
expensive. The move into secondary markets is underpinned by the anticipated
increase in both debt and equity capital during 2014.
Transwestern: More
Opportunities in Sale-Leasebacks and Net Lease
The cost of capital for owner occupants is on the rise, thanks
to increasing interest rates. To cope with higher costs, owner-occupants are
increasingly looking at selling their owned real estate as one strategy to
generate funds for operating expenses, company expansion or retiring debt. This
scenario presents an excellent sale-leaseback opportunity for investors looking
to acquire real estate that comes with a long-term tenant in place. The lending
environment is expected to bring more net-lease properties to market, as well.
As interest rates increase, a larger number of office, industrial and retail
buildings are projected to be marketed for sale.
That's 14 predictions for 2014. We look forward to covering these and many
other major trends in commercial real estate in the year ahead. Here is a bonus
prediction from CoStar's Property and Portfolio Research group:
CoStar: 2014 Best Year
of Office Occupancy Gains in Recovery Cycle
Heading into New Year, office employment has been growing
at the fastest rate since the start of the recovery, with the sole exception of
early 2012. But there are two key differences between today's market and that
of the past few years. First, the office market now has far less under-utilized
"shadow" supply space, which will drive a higher level of net
absorption as more office-using tenants expand. Second, with the demand outlook
improving and new construction still at bay in most markets, the 2014 occupancy
gains in US office markets should be the best of the entire recovery and should
tip the scales toward greater rent growth during 2014 than in the past few
years. However, developers have already shown their willingness to break ground
at the first sign of improvement. This has already happened in Boston, Houston,
Silicon Valley and most recently, San Francisco. As developers ramp up new
supply, the office occupancy gains are likely to slow in 2015 and certainly by
2016. Investors should enjoy the benefits of occupancy gains in 2014, which are
expected to be the best in the current recovery cycle.
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